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International Journal of Latest Research in Science and Technology

DOI:10.29111/ijlrst   ISRA Impact Factor:3.35

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Simulation of climate and its implication on agriculture in Morocco using Statistical DownScaling

Research Paper Open Access

International Journal of Latest Research in Science and Technology Vol.2 Issue 5, pp 83-96,Year 2013

SIMULATION OF CLIMATE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON AGRICULTURE IN MOROCCO USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

Adelaziz Babqiqi, Mohammed Messouli

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Received : 20 October 2013; Accepted : 25 October 2013 ; Published : 31 October 2013

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Article No. 10214
Abstract

Assessment of regional climate impact requires high-resolution climate data. We use a Statistical Downscaling Model to develop and implement a methodology for constructing a high-resolution climate projection dataset, based on IPCC scenarios. We use down-scaled temperature and precipitation for different future scenarios and time horizons to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural regions in Morocco. The accuracy of downscaled precipitation and temperature is acceptable. Under the IPCC A2 scenario and for 2020, results indicate annual warming between 0.8 and 1.8°C with warming less than 1.9°C for all seasons. Similarly, annual rainfall decreased by less than 8% with a maximum reduction of 11.4% during the spring. We find that projected rainfall reductions are larger than those made by low resolution multi-model ensemble. Under a warmer climate, projected extreme statistics related to temperature, such as heat-waves, are likely to increase substantially in magnitude and frequency. These projections are useful for the study region where observations are rare and coarse large scale global models do not capture local features. In our study region, the Statistical Downscaling Model appears to be an essential tool for scale-reduction of modelled meteorological information. Results from this study are important for farmers and land and water managers alike to start early planning for cropping and developing adaptation measures including crop replacement and modifications and other means of irrigation and water deliveries, optimal for near future climate conditions.

Key Words   
Climate Change; Global Climate Model; Statistical Model; Meteorological Observations; Agr

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To cite this article

Adelaziz Babqiqi, Mohammed Messouli , " Simulation Of Climate And Its Implication On Agriculture In Morocco Using Statistical Downscaling ", International Journal of Latest Research in Science and Technology . Vol. 2, Issue 5, pp 83-96 , 2013

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